

Low slip-rate faults tend to have large recurrence intervals and thus are usually regarded that they represent a low hazard probability. However, when these faults neighboring a large city, the risk becomes high. The Afidnai fault is a low slip-rate fault that bounds the northern edge of the Athens Plain and represents such an example. Due to the long recurrence intervals these faults are often absent from the historical catalogues and thus are usually excluded from the seismic hazard assessment. In such cases only geological data can extend the history of a fault back in time, depicting the long-term deformation pattern of slip. Mapping and assessing the hazard from low slip-rate faults, such as the Afidnai fault, is a difficult process due to their subtle geomorphic expression. As a result, the Afidnai fault even though it bounds the city of Athens, is only recently identified and described in detail. No postglacial or well-shaped bedrock scarps with a free face can be revealed because erosion and sedimentation rates are higher and outpace the fault slip-rate. However, the study of geomorphic features, such as terraces/planation surfaces, provided us with a first order pattern of deformation rates. In particular, we have used offset Pleistocene terraces to calculate a long-term throw-rate of 0.1 to 0.3 mm/yr for the Afidnai fault, depending on the actual terrace Pleistocene age estimates and our location along strike the fault. Based on a worst-case scenario the 14 km long Afidnai fault can generate events of the maximum magnitude (M=6.4), about every 2000 years. Considering that the completeness of the historical record in Greece for such magnitude events is shorter than 500 years, it is evident that the completeness of the historical record is much shorter than the mean earthquake recurrence interval of the Afidnai fault. The Afidnai fault is one of the three potential sources to accommodate the 1705 event that occurred in NE Attica; however the limited data extracted from the historical record cannot confirm or deny such an interpretation. If this fault ruptured in 1705, then the probability for a future event in the near future is rather negligible. Finally, the city of Athens rests both towards the eastern tip and the footwall of the Afidnai fault, implying that a possible rupture of this fault is expected to cause a lot of disturbance but minor to moderate damage to the city of Athens.